Headaches over Iran and America
Thursday, August 31st, 2006Reaction to the news of Iran continuing its nuclear energy program after
the UN imposed deadline on August 31
Why is Iran so adament about pursuing its nuclear energy program?
Although it claims to be developing nuclear energy capability for civilian
application, it is clear that military grade uranium will eventually be
produced, and that’s just a skip away from actually putting it on the tip
of missle. The record of subterfuge and misdirection, as well as
downright denial of UN and IAEA inspectors access to the Iran’s nuclear
facilities points to the question: what do they have to hide? So let’s
not kid ourselves with saying that Iran isn’t developing weapons,
because the evidence says otherwise. However, that doesn’t mean that
nuclear weapons is their only concern. They could also be constructing
actual energy plants. So, in the face of these conclusions, lets think
of reasons why Iran is doing what its doing.
- The politics of nuclear weapons- being a nuclear power is a trump card
in foriegn relations. As Iran makes itself a modern power, able to
stand up to its neighbors China and Russia, as well as present a strong
political face to the Arab countries to the south, the possession of
nuclear weapons (though not the use of them) is a major motivation for a
the Iranian state. The problem is that everyone who wants to be someone
wants nuclear weapons, and if everyone has nuclear weapons, the political
value of owning nuclear weapons diminishes.
- Oil issues and China- China is highly dependant on both Iranian and Saudi oil.
But unlike the Arabs, Iran doesn’t have the surplus to give to both itself
and China (oil is highly subsidized in Iran). To make more out of its oil
(by selling it),Iran can develop nuclear energy to take the burden of
providing energy from off of its oil reserves. China also sees this as
beneficial because of the need for oil in order to continue economic growth.
Right now, China’s economy is counted among the fastet growing economies
in the world. In order to sustain that growth, China must have oil to fuel
its industries, transportation and commerce. To get it from the Arabs is
well and good, but a direct pipeline from Iran is the sweet spot. That
pipeline will be possible once Iran is no longer dependant on its own oil
reserves and can share them with China.
- National pride- probably more subtle in its manifestation, Iranian culture
surely has something to do with the strong articulation of defiance coming
from the Iranian state. Iran has a long history, and traces its cultural
heritage back to the Persian Empire. This inheritance is not a light matter,
and it affects Iranian outlooks on international relations.
Because of the government’s failure to comply, Iran is now facing
serious economic and political sanctions, such as limiting the travel of
Iranian clerics and diplomats, as well as the freezing of foriegn assets,
and trade embargos. The reasons listed above are pretty obvious. They
are nothing new. But the question isn’t what the reasons are; the
question is are the reasons good enough to risk what Iran is risking?
Additionally, should the international community be willing to recognize
these reasons as legitimate?
Are the reasons good enough?
From where I’m seeing it, it depends on how far the Iranian state is willing
to take the battle. And that’s the problem. It’s become a battle, between
Western calls for a halt and Iranian insistance. It’s not about finding a
solution, because the solution being proposed by one side is directly
opposed by the other. The reasons are well and good, we can see why the
Iranians want nuclear energy. But if the game continues to proceed the way
it has been proceeding, then there could be some serious consequences. In
other words, the reasons are right, but the pursuit of those reasons is
wrong.
The international community
We’re getting two messages, with subtle but significant differences, from
GWB in Washington and the UN Security Council in New York. The former is
calling for regime change, with the typical use of terrorism, nuclear
weapons and security "for the American People" as reasons to take action.
The latter is ready to enforce UN rule through diplomatic action, mainly
because of Iran’s failure to comply with UN ruling.
I’ve constantly held the view that both George Bush and Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad are being unneccessarily aggressive with their public
rhetoric. They’re words are a throw-back to times when people could be
whipped up into a nationalistic fervor over the fancy words of a demagogue.
However, as personally ineffective as their words may be, publically, in
the media, they still count for something.
George Bush wants to present a strong face to the American nation, as a
"war-time" leader, continuing the fight against terrorism. Five years
after 9/11, and the Americans find themselves with a government that is
bordering on the paranoid, squandering political good-will in the
international arena and making more enemies the friends in the Middle East.
Then we have Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose fiery words are causing undue
concern in the West. Does he really mean what he says? A week ago, the
New York Times reported on the Iranian culture of Ta’Rof, the penchant of
saying one thing but actually meaning something else (Filipinos do this a
lot). So, does he really mean what he says? I don’t think Ahmadinejad, or
the Iranian people want to risk a war. But they don’t want to be bullied
either.
The UN is being cautious, as they usually are. The Security Council will
take action, but that action will be tempered by the presence of Russia and
China, both who have interests in the development of a nuclear Iran, as well
as closer ties to the Iranian state then other members of the Council.
This caution is what the international community needs.
Keep the lines of
dialogue open. The UN must be able to assert itself over the United States
in order for these lines of dialogue to be open. Only the Bush Administration
has shown itself to be willing to flout the UN; someone needs to deal with
Bush at the same time we deal with Ahmadinejad.
It is said that one can learn international politics simply by watching
children on a playground. Sure enough, it looks like Bush and Ahamdinejad
are about to start a rock fight, and the UN needs to be the grown-up and
step in between, and deal fairly with both America and Iran.